Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Confirmed At 2016 High

Eurozone final November consumer confidence was unchanged from the flash reading at -6.1 and a significant improvement from the -8.0 recorded for October.

There was a significant monthly improvement in confidence surrounding the general economic situation and future employment prospects. In contrast, confidence surrounding their individual future financial situation and savings expectations stayed broadly unchanged on the month.

This was the strongest consumer confidence reading since December 2015 and the sharpest monthly improvement for over 18 months. The data will maintain expectations of an improving short-term trend in consumer spending and there will be relief that underlying political stresses do not appear to have had a negative impact on confidence.

There was also a significant increase in inflation expectations in the latest survey with the index of price trends over the past 12 months rising to 1.0 from -2.3 previously, while the expected price trend over the next 12 months increased to 12.9 from 7.7, comfortably the highest reading of 2016.

The increase in inflation expectations will be on significant relief to the ECB and should ease fears that the prolonged run of inflation readings will drag inflation expectations down and potentially trigger second-round effects.

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Tim Clayton

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