US Case-Shiller Annual Home Price Index Breaks Above 2006 Highs

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price index recorded a 5.5% increase in the year to September from 5.1% previously and was fractionally above expectations. Significantly, the overall price index surpassed the previous peak in prices seen in July 2006.

The seasonally adjusted national price index rose 0.8% for the month.

The 20-city annual increase was unchanged at 5.1% for September, while the 10-city index recorded an annual increase of 4.3% from 4.2% previously. Both these indices remain below their 2006 peak levels.

The strongest annual increase was recorded in Seattle at 11.0% with Portland pushed into second place at 10.9%.

The weakest annual gain was again seen in New York at 1.8% with Washington at 2.7% from 2.3% previously.

According to David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, ‘the new peak in the national index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance’.

Interest rates will, however, be watched closely in the short term as long-term yields have already moved sharply higher this month with 30-year rates trading close to 3.00%. Although still very low in historic terms, the sharp increase in rates and expectations of further Fed tightening will pose an important test for overall confidence in the market.

caseshiller (1)

Tim is a contributing author to He is an economist and has been involved in financial markets for over 20 years as an analyst. He specialises in global economic trends, macro policy and central banks. Extensive knowledge, experience and data mining is used to anticipate trends in equities, bonds and forex with a contrarian slant. He is a graduate of the University of York with a degree in Economics/Econometrics.