EUR/USD Resumes Advance, Testing 61.8% Retracement of Decline to April Low

EUR/USD eased back following Tuesday’s big run to the upside, but has resumed the move higher in today’s trading and is currently at 1.0757, a gain of 0.44% over Wednesday’s North American close.

The pair reached a high of 1.0777 in today’s trading, which corresponds to a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the late-March high to the April low. A sustained move above this retracement would increase the probabilities of a full retracement with a move back to the March high at 1.0906.

The fact that EUR/USD is extending its run to the upside in the presence of an overbought condition is a positive sign, signaling that a break above the 61.8% retracement is likely.

On the downside, initial support is at the 1.0736 level, followed by 1.0700. At present, given today’s show of strength, a move below these levels of support is not expected.

In today’s session, German PPI, month-over-month, for March was reported at 0.0%, which was slightly below consensus forecast for a reading at 0.1% and a prior reading at 0.2%. Year-over-year came in at 3.1%, also slightly below forecast for a reading at 3.2%.

In the US, weekly jobless claims are due at 08:30 ET, as is the Philadelphia Fed Index. Leading indicators will be released at 10:00 ET.

EUR/USD Daily Chart


Tracy L. Morganthall, CMT, has been a Technical Market Analyst for more than 20 years. She has experience analyzing and producing reports on equities, both domestic and international markets, as well as Forex and commodities. She attended Trenton State College in Trenton, New Jersey, earning a Bachelor's in Finance.