New York July Empire Manufacturing Index Declines To 9.8, Outlook Remains Firm

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey declined to 9.8 for July from 19.8 previously. This was below consensus expectations of 15.0, although it was the second successive positive reading and the fourth-strongest reading of the past two years with the data still indicating firm growth.

There was a significant retreat in the shipments index to 10.5 from 22.3 previously.

New orders declined to 13.3 from 18.1 and unfilled orders retreated to -4.7 from 4.6 the previous month which will tend to slow output growth.

There was slight moderation in the increase for delivery times while the inventories index declined to 2.4 from 7.7.

The number of employees continued to increase, although the rate of growth slowed from June while the average workweek was unchanged on the month.

The prices paid index rose slightly to 21.3 from 20.0 while there was a small increase in the prices received component to 11.0 from 10.8.

Forward-looking indicators maintained a strong tone, although the overall expectations of business confidence index edged lower to 34.9 from 41.7 previously.

Confidence in the US outlook took a dip lower following the latest retail sales data, although the overall manufacturing data was generally impressive for June.

The Empire survey suggests very solid manufacturing expansion will continue during July, although the data will not trigger a fundamental reassessment of the US outlook.

There was little currency-market reaction as the dollar remained under pressure, although Treasuries edged fractionally lower with 10-year futures up 5 ticks on the day to yield 2.31%.

US New York Empire Index


Tim is a contributing author to He is an economist and has been involved in financial markets for over 20 years as an analyst. He specialises in global economic trends, macro policy and central banks. Extensive knowledge, experience and data mining is used to anticipate trends in equities, bonds and forex with a contrarian slant. He is a graduate of the University of York with a degree in Economics/Econometrics.