Canadian June GDP Rose 0.3%, Second Quarter Beats Bank Of Canada Expectations

Canadian GDP rose 0.3% for June following a 0.6% increase for May which was again above consensus expectations of a 0.1% gain for the month.

This was the eighth successive quarterly gain and 14 of the 20 industries reported growth for the month to give a 4.6% annual increase.

Growth in goods-producing industries rose 0.7% to give 7.7% year-on-year growth with a slight contraction in the oil and gas sector offset by strong 2.0% growth in the construction sector.

Wholesale sales declined for the month, but retail sales made a positive contribution for the month.

The services sector expanded 0.2% on the month to give 3.0% annual growth with both metrics unchanged from the May data.

For the second quarter, goods-producing sectors rose 1.8% with a 0.9% growth in services to give overall growth of 1.1%.

The Bank of Canada is likely to remain relatively confident in the growth outlook and the second quarter data was above their expectations, although there are still important uncertainties.

There will be some concerns surrounding exports, especially with a stronger Canadian dollar with the NAFTA negotiations also a complicating factor.

As far as domestic demand is concerned, there will be important uncertainties surrounding the housing sector which could have a wider impact on the economy if there is a sustained slowdown.

The Canadian dollar still strengthened after the data with USD/CAD declining to just below the 1.2600 level from 1.2655 ahead of the release with fresh speculation that the Bank of Canada will move to raise interest rates again this year.

Tim is a contributing author to He is an economist and has been involved in financial markets for over 20 years as an analyst. He specialises in global economic trends, macro policy and central banks. Extensive knowledge, experience and data mining is used to anticipate trends in equities, bonds and forex with a contrarian slant. He is a graduate of the University of York with a degree in Economics/Econometrics.